GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – As of 2026, the World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion to 3.9 percent. This marks a notable rise from the 1.9 percent predicted in March. The WTO explained that increased trade activity in the first half of the year, along with supply chain realignments and heightened investment in artificial intelligence, contributed to this positive revision. Despite significant disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026. Looking ahead, the organization now anticipates merchandise trade growth to reach 4.1 percent in 2027.
During the initial months of 2026, demand driven by artificial intelligence played a central role in merchandise trade expansion. Goods related to AI, including semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these items increasing by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global investment in AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent throughout 2026. The surge in demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade levels, even as other sectors experienced disruptions caused by conflicts and logistical constraints.
Across the globe, supply chains adjusted to pressures in key commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports declined by roughly 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent in the same period. However, increased shipments from other suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent, and global LNG exports only fell by 1 percent. Worldwide, container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July as international trade moved through alternative ports and routes.
AI-Related Goods Bolster Global Merchandise Trade
In contrast to the optimistic outlook for merchandise, expectations for international services trade have weakened. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East adversely impacted transport and international travel, with second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent. Overall, arrivals during the first half of the year increased by only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel expenditures also slowed sharply between the two quarters.
Despite these challenges, other service sectors performed better. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services also grew by 14 percent year-over-year in the second quarter. The WTO forecasts that commercial services trade volume will expand by 6.4 percent in 2027. Additionally, it projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and an increase to 2.9 percent in the following year.
Disparities in Regional Trade Expansion Persist
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal significant variations across different parts of the world. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is anticipated to see a 5.7 percent rise, and Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is expected to grow by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe might experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the sharpest contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, import growth varies notably among regions. Asia is projected to record a 9.5 percent increase in merchandise imports, while Africa is expected to grow by 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecasted to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports into the Middle East are anticipated to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience but also highlight the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.