MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established an ambitious target to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly approved strategic industry plan. This figure is integrated into the revised coal development framework, with current production estimated at approximately 443 million tonnes in 2024. The Russian government sanctioned this initiative via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting forth long-term objectives for production, exports, and sector growth.
The plan presents four different pathways for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, production is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. Subsequently, it is expected to rise to the 662 million tonne mark by 2050. The alternative scenarios predict lower 2050 output levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside these production targets, Russia has also outlined export goals. The main scenario anticipates coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes by 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and attaining 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted a 7.2% growth in Russian coal exports during the first eight months of 2026. This comprehensive plan addresses both domestic consumption and international trade aspects.
Production and Export Objectives
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining existing mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It also elevates the significance of coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of national output in 2024. The plan aims to increase this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia’s reserves are reported to exceed 273 billion tonnes of explored coal deposits.
Furthermore, the plan sets specific goals for coal processing and mining methods. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, accounted for 58.9% of total production. The programme aims to elevate this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed 78.4% to production in 2024, with a target range of 82% to 85% under the long-term outlook. The strategy also incorporates initiatives related to productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety protocols, and environmental measures.
Coal Industry Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia intends to implement this plan in three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting industry development. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes enhancing coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the implementation, coordinating with federal and regional authorities and involved organizations, and is mandated to provide annual progress reports to the Economic Development Ministry under government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced this updated programme during a government meeting on September 21. It replaces Russia’s previous coal industry plan, which covered the period through 2035 and was approved in 2020. Novak projected that the sector’s gross value added could multiply sixfold by 2050, with the overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target is designated as the primary scenario within the plan, rather than an absolute prediction.