ROME / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, global cereal output is projected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the record set last year. The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that this total would still mark the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The newest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July estimate. This decline of 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year would mark the most significant annual reduction since 2018.
Across the globe, maize production is expected to hit 1.309 billion tonnes after weaker crop prospects led to a downward revision of earlier estimates. The persistent summer heat and drought conditions impacted yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Estimates for India and Paraguay were also reduced based on official data, though Argentina and Brazil delivered better-than-anticipated yields, both projected to produce well above-average maize quantities in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production now stand at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Improved yield expectations for Canada and Morocco raised projections by roughly 1.5 million tonnes each. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine were also revised upward, whereas dry weather conditions caused downward adjustments for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these upward revisions, global wheat output remains 3.8% below the 2025 level and would still be the second-largest crop on record.
Maize reductions lead to downward revision of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is forecast at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by increased yields in Sri Lanka and positive developments in Myanmar. These gains offset declines in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO projects global cereal consumption will reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice use are expected to grow, wheat consumption is forecasted to decrease from last season’s elevated levels. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed requirements also continue to be significant, including barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Looking at stocks, global cereal reserves at the end of 2027 are expected to total 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 31.6%, slightly below the previous season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while lower maize and barley inventories have moderated the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates, yet still below the record volume of 2025/26. The rise is mainly driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall shipments 1.9% below the 2025 peak.